...Something Borrowed, Something Blue

Something borrowed: The Republicans are living on borrowed time. Although there is still much uncertainty about whom the Democrats will nominate, they are poised to take back the White House in '08. (Will Hilary be the first to make the jump from First Lady, to US Senator, to President?)

Something blue: The electoral map, (er, sort of). With the House under their belts, control of the Senate just around the corner, the wind at their backs, and the sun on their collective face, Speaker Pelosi's party looks ready to paint the town blue.

(Incidentally, the original name for this post and the last was "Out with the Old, In with the Blue," but I didn't think the Democratic takeover was sweeping enough to sustain such a title. I suppose this new title works out better since it can be divided into larger halves, references a favorite wedding superstition, and allows for four pieces of commentary instead of only two.)

As mentioned in the previous article, the Donkeys have already gained control of the House. Today's Washington Post reports that "[g]oing into the elections, Republicans held 230 seats in the House and the Democrats had 201. One was held by an independent who usually votes with the Democrats, and three were vacant." According to the math, this means the Ds needed to gain 15 seats previously held by the Rs; so far, it looks like they have picked up 27, with two more possible in close races down in Georgia (CNN.com). This election marks the the first time Democrats have held power over the lower house since the Republican Revolution of 1994, when Newt Gingrich brilliantly engineered the takeover with his 'Contract with America.' Speaking of the Revolution, here's a little graph I made to compare the relative victories in the midterm elections of 1994 and 2006 [with a special thanks to the genius that is Ben for helping me figure out a way to publish Excel sheets]:

If you're interested in the specifics on the some of the House seats the Democrats took back , here they are (lifted again from the Post):

Democrats reached the 15-seat threshold by knocking off Republicans in three districts in Indiana, two districts in Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and New York, and one each in Connecticut, Kentucky, North Carolina and Ohio. Additional Democratic victories over GOP incumbents then began to come in from others states, including Texas, where the Republicans lost the Houston-area seat formerly held by Tom DeLay, the once-powerful House majority leader. DeLay resigned in June after being indicted on charges of conspiring to violate campaign finance laws. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a dermatologist and member of the Houston City Council, ran as a write-in candidate but lost to Democrat Nicholas V. Lampson, a former congressman who lost his House seat after a controversial 2004 redistricting that DeLay helped engineer.

So far, the Democrats have taken Senate seats in Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. The races in Virginia (Sen. George Allen-R. vs. James Webb-D) and Montana (Sen. Conrad Burns-R vs. Jon Tester-D) are still too close to call. [The Democrats ended up winning both of these, and the chart above was modified to reflect that. Nonetheless, they technically lost Joe Lieberman's seat when he switched party affiliation from Democrat to independent, giving them a net gain of five, not six, seats.]

The thing I'm wondering is whether the Dems will be truly be able to parlay these midterm gains into the big win in 2008; was it really the best political strategy to accept the war in Iraq and the host of other problems (including the fact that there is still no federal budget for the 2006 fiscal year) they have inherited from their friends across the aisle? Maybe they just should have let the Republicans govern and try to cope with the mess at hand, and use the ensuing calamity to their advantage in two years.

As promised earlier, here is the other half of the 'tribute' to former Secretary Rumsfeld:

To: Rummy. From: The Dems
Rummy, ol' chummy, you helped us ASCEND!
You savior, you hero, you maestro, you friend!
We love you! We love you! Can't say it enough.
(Though o'erlooking your defects was pretty rough.)

Your squinty-eyed schemings took us off track.
(As Kerry would say, "We got stuck in Iraq.")
You sent out our soldiers—sent them under the ground:
Our fury and mourning are deeply profound.

But now all is forgiven; the past is the past.
As mad as we were, we're moving on fast.
We hated you once, but we're now we're best mates.
(But we're not quite sure yet 'bout Robert M. Gates.)

We're celebratory, so why do you wince?
Rummy, you winner, you genius, you prince!
...Hold on a second, we're getting afraid:
Now what will we do with this mess that you've made?